jjrscott

Probabity of Death

Over the past few months of lockdown those remaining on the roads appear to be breaking the law more. In the UK, both speeding (and to an extent mobile phone use) is seen as barely a crime at all, certainly not the killer that it is.

It took a bit of digging but eventually I found Relationship between Speed and Risk of Fatal Injury: Pedestrians and Car Occupants which contains a number of Probability of Death models. Once of which is Figure 2.6: Cumulative impact speed for pedestrian casualties in the OTS and police fatal file dataset:

figure-2-6 Created with Sketch.

Unfortunately, the above chart doesn’t really give a sense of the danger, nor does it extend to the speeds sometimes seen on UK roads. Here’s my updated version:

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Probability of Death Created with Sketch. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 kph 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 mph 100 80 60 40 20 0